April (2026) Almond Market Update
With the March Position Report (2026.03_PosRpt_4435.pdf) released yesterday, the market is starting to feel more constructive after what has been a fairly choppy marketing year. Shipment pace came in strong and, more importantly, consistent, which reinforces that global demand is still very much present. After spending much of the season playing catch-up, the industry has now worked through a large portion of that earlier deficit, bringing overall movement closer in line with last year. It’s a noticeable shift in tone compared to where we were just a few months ago.
What stands out is that this improvement hasn’t been driven by any single market. Export demand continues to do the heavy lifting, but we’re also starting to see some life on the domestic side, particularly from a sales perspective. Buyers have been opportunistic, stepping in when pricing softens to cover near-term needs, and that steady flow of business has helped stabilize the market. It’s still very much a hand-to-mouth environment, but the consistency in activity is what matters.
At the same time, the conversation is clearly starting to pivot toward the crop. Early indications suggest a very mixed 2026 outlook depending on region and variety, and when you layer in weather impacts, water availability, and rising input costs, there’s a growing sense that supply may not be as straightforward as it once looked. Add in tightening inshell availability and a more defined carryout trajectory, and you start to see a market that has a bit more structure underneath it.
That said, this is not a market that can afford to get complacent. The improved position we’re seeing now has been built on steady, disciplined selling over the past several months, and that needs to continue. The fundamentals look better, no question, but there are still enough variables — from crop development to global logistics — that will ultimately determine how this plays out.
For now, the takeaway is fairly simple: demand is doing its job, the industry has regained its footing, and the market feels more balanced. Where it goes from here will increasingly depend on what happens in the orchards over the next few months.
Hudson Jamison, CEO (American Almond Company)
The 2026 almond crop continues to progress well, with steady nut development across orchards. Recent wet weather has increased disease pressure, and with additional storms in the forecast, many growers are actively applying fungicides to stay protected. Navel orangeworm (NOW) pressure is building earlier and at higher levels than typical, prompting increased monitoring and early management considerations. In addition, plant bug activity is being closely watched, with timely scouting underway. As we move forward, May spray timing and material selection will be critical in maintaining control of both disease and insect pressure.
Patrick Cole, Grower Representative (American Almond Company)