August (2026) Almond Market Update

Dear Growers, 

The Almond Board just released the August 2026 Position Report, the first look at where the 2026/27 crop year stands. Here's a quick rundown of what it shows and what it could mean for you this season. 

Receipts are up year-over-year, but that's mostly a timing story, not a bigger crop. 

August receipts came in at 401.9 million lbs, up 55% from last August. Harvest and delivery have started earlier this season, pulling more volume into August's numbers than usual. Southern counties (Fresno, Kern, Madera, Tulare, Kings) accounted for 54.6% of receipts, Central (Merced, Stanislaus, San Joaquin) 28.0%, and Northern 17.4%. Nonpareil made up 66% of receipts and Independence 27%, with an industry-wide reject rate around 2.1%. Statewide, crop receipts are forecast at 2.70 billion lbs for the year against a 3,116.7 million lb total supply forecast. Current expectations are for an average to low yield this year — so it’s not reflective of a bumper crop, simply as an early harvest result. 

Carry-in came in lower than expected. 

The Board restated the 8/1 beginning inventory down to 470.7 million lbs (from an initial forecast of 494.2 million), after the actual Loss & Exempt rate came in at 2.87% versus the 2% originally forecast. That's a modest tightening on the front end. 

Shipments are strong, led by exports. 

Total shipments for August were up 20.5% year-over-year, but that's entirely an export story — export shipments jumped 31%, while domestic shipments actually dipped 3.3%. Demand out of India, Pakistan, Japan, and Taiwan was especially strong; the Middle East (particularly UAE) pulled back. 

Uncommitted inventory is elevated. 

Uncommitted inventory (crop received but not yet sold) is up 233% versus this time last year — 176.9 million lbs versus 53.2 million. This is a factor in why some sellers are holding back rather than moving volume at current levels. That's contributing to a slower pace of sales for now, and could potentially factor into pricing as the season progresses, though it's too early to say definitively how this will affect the market. 

As always, reach out if you have questions about what this means for your operation specifically. 

Best, Hudson Jamison

American Almond Company Inc.